York Ebor – Day 4 Preview

August 23, 2014
VIPglobalcasinos

C’mon, you know you are going to have to read it! If you don’t, you know we tip up 5 winners today and you miss the boat. That’s what Gamblor does. “You know he’s messing with my mella man” Any way enough of that stuff we really do need to find some winners today at York and I think we have got the answers.

 

2.05 Strensall Stakes Group 3 9f

Classy if small field for this race. Farraaj is all the rage after winning a handicap at this track in the manner of a group horse. Graphic brings a profile to the race that just keeps getting better and Custom Cut for O’Meara and Tudhope is trying to complete a four timer. Its a terrific race of its type and I am going to side with a horse I saw show an electric turn of foot 15 months ago in Meydan and hasn’t quite show that same performance since. Trade Storm looked a Grp 1 certainty then and I think hasn’t had the right conditions to replicate that until today. David Simcock has his string in fine form and Jamie Spencer knows the horse and knows how to ride him through horses to deliver a potent challenge.

Our Bet :  1 unit e/w Trade Storm @ 11/2 with Betvictor

 

2 mile York2.40 Betfred Melrose Stakes Hcp 14f

19 take to the gates for a race that features a wide assortment of profiles only 3 favourites have won this race in 10 years but no horse has ever been more than 9/1 in a race that regularly goes 5/1 the field. So fancied horses run well in this race. Captain Morley looked good at Chester but I think he could do with an ease in the ground to be at his best. I think Notarised needs this extra distance but his has not been an easy year and this may not see him at his best, which he would need to be to win. Kashmiri Sunset is appealing off his feather weight but again an ease in the ground might be to his advantage. I am going to side with Farquhar who is crying out for this trip and put up his best effort when finishing fourth at Haydock. I think he is over priced. There is also no escaping the favourite who at 11/2 looks the type to win this race for master trainer Luca Cumani.

Our bets:

1 unit e/w Farquhar @ 25/1 with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Conneticut @ 11/2 with Bet 365

 

3.15 Irish Thoroughbred Gimcrack Stakes Group 2 6f

Jungle Cat and Beacon look exceptional colts with the 6f sure to suit Beacon and Mark Johnstons Jungle Cat having contested with the very best but for me we will keep it simple. We have sided with Baitha Alga since his first win at Chester and have seen no reason to abandon him now. I think he is exceptional and his pilot knows the buttons to push.

Our bet : 4 units e/w Baitha Alga @ 7/2 with Sportingbet

 

York jockeys3.50 Betfred Ebor Class 2 14f

One of the classic betting races of the year. Pallasator has been laid out for the race by his master tactician trainer Sir Mark Prescot Bt – who as far as I know is a Baronet because of services to handicapping horses for the racing nobility. Despite the fact that he might win I think he is a bit over bet now, although I cant see much outside the first 5 in the betting anyway. I think this trip will bring out the best in Clever Cookie who has been a revelation on the flat. Mighty Yar has all the ability you need to win this race, a lowly weight and a quality big race jockey in Dettori. Bold Sniper lost nothing in defeat to Farraaj, who contests the opener on the card and although he steps up in trip he has won over 12f already and finally one from outside the top 5 Suegioo, who although he has won over much longer trips this year something I have noticed this week is that because they are going such a quick pace on this fast ground you really need to stay and he has both class and the ability to stay. I evidence this with the Lonsdale the other day where 1st and 2nd clearly need 2 mile 4 furlongs but were clear of the rest over this 2 mile trip.

Our bets:

1 unit e/w Clever Cookie @ 11/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Suegioo @ 40/1 with Sportingbet

 

4.25 Julia Graves Roses Stakes – Listed 5f 2 yo

Always a difficult race as 2yo olds improve at different rates after every race due to growing, experience and different racing conditions as evidenced by the fact that only 1 favourite has won in the last 10 years. I have got it down to three. Mind of Madness for David Brown who was just 1.5 lengths behind Baitha Alga at Royal Ascot and then put in a strange one at Newmarket, to back him we need to put a line through that Newmarket run. He has had a good break since then and could be cherry ripe. Moonraker for Mick Channon who beat Mubtaghaa in his Maiden and then also ran poorly in the same race at Newmarket and finally Showing Character, who beat a good-un first time up at Chester and then trounced him again having improved further.  It’s a bit of a gamble to go with one less experienced but I fancy the Dacombe horse to ocme out on top on a course that should suit him better than Chester

Our bets :

1 unit e/w Mind of Madness @ 4/1 with Bet 365

2 units e/w Showing Character @ 7/2 with Sportingbet

 

5.00 Jack Berry House Stakes Class 2, 10f

Ultra competitive race with any number how could win. Llarnarmon Lad is a horse we have been following and who looks to have the necessary ability to win a race of this nature and he is a tentative selection. I also think these is value in Double Discount who is back to the form he showed when looking a good un last year and at a big price i think he could be competitive

Our bets :

1 unit e/w Llanarmon Lad @ 8/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Double Discount @ 25/1 with Sportingbet

 

and finally

 

5.35 Qipco Future Stars Hcp 5f

As if it hasn’t been hard enough they finish of this carnival with an Apprentice Handicap over 5 furlongs for 3 year olds. You could make it any tougher. So if we haven’t hacked up today then we really do need some luck in this one. I picked out three. Logically Online Alexander heads the field and this trainer jockey combination is a successful one on most racing days so Kevin Stotts 3lb is well worth it. Speed Hawk for Robert Cowell and Robert Tart will also be popular as he has found his feet again as a sprinter and finally Money Team who I think has been desperate for a flat track and has got it today with the best claiming apprentice of the lot, Cam Hardie in the plate.

Our bets :

1 unit e/w Speed Hawk @ with with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Money Team @ 16/1 with Bet 365