St Leger Day 3 Televised Races Preview

September 12, 2014
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picksfromthepaddockOur friends from Picksfromthepaddock have put up their tips and previews for todays televised races and we go head to head with our tips underneath – It should be a great days racing and we can’t wait

13:40 Doncaster We open day three to Doncaster’s St.Leger meeting with a great looking two year old, five furlong race. At the head of the betting and in my opinion, worthy favourite, Ainippe is unbeaten and hails from the bang in form yard of Irish trainer Ger Lyons. The unbeaten favourite has a win over Ballydoyle’s Great War which reads well but will need to have continued its progression and for that alone I’m willing to take it on. Charlie Hills had a winner yesterday and he enters Glorious Goodwood winner Cotai Glory in this. I was so impressed by the horse it went straight into my notebook after it’s last run and with top notch jockey George Baker on board it has to have a solid chance. An outsider worth noting is David Barron’s Sarista. A fourth behind Hootenanny at Royal Ascot is form that reads very well and the horse is surely overpriced at 33/1.
Cotai Glory 1 unit e/w @ 6/1 with Sportingbet Sarista (E/W) .5 unit e/w @ 50/1 with Sportingbet

Betting Agency tip : 1 unit e/w @ Ahlan Emaratti @ 8/1 with Betvictor

 

14:10 Doncaster The second race from the Yorkshire course is over the St. Leger one mile and six furlong trip. With fifteen runners heading to post value has to be the order of the day and I think you shouldn’t look further than John Quinn’s Pearl Castle. The horse is a model of consistency and has a great record at Doncaster with two wins from two starts at the course. I’d argue that the level of its races have been higher than this one and seems great value at around 9/1.
Pearl Castle (E/W) 1 unit @ 10/1 Sportingbet

Betting Agency tip 1 unit e/w Farquhar @ 14/1 with Sportingbet

 

14:40 Doncaster The big race of the day over a marathon trip of two miles and two furlongs sees Times Up aim to retain his victory in this race for the second time. The Ed Dunlop horse seems in better form this year compared to last and obviously relishes conditions. Current favourite Estimate is by far the class horse in the race but seems to have been found wanting against some of its opposition this year and with a current price of 5/4 seems very short in the betting and there’s
no value backing the Queens runner. Of the remaining entrants many like the look of Andrew Balding’s Whiplash Willie. The horse has certainly beenrunning consistently but at a much lower level than this and needs to take a marked step up in class. I think the horse has what it takes to place but probably not what is needed to win.
Times Up (WIN) 2 units @ 4/1 with Sportingbet

Betting Agency tip 1 unit e/w @ 7/1 with Sportingbet

 

15:15 Doncaster The penultimate race shown on Channel 4 is a very open two year old contest. The undoubted class horse is the Mark Johnston favourite Muraaqaba who was mightily impressive when winning a Group three at Newmarket last time out. That form is better than anything it’s rivals have accomplished but is far too short in the betting to represent any great value. Away from the favourite I like the look of Alonsoa, who’s last run can be ignored as the filly didn’t appreciate the soft, underfoot conditions and will relish the return to better ground. Trainer Henry Candy has his yard in good form at the moment and represents better value than those at the head of the market.
Alonsoa – 1 unit e/w @ 11/2 with Sportingbet

Betting Agency tip: Agnes Stewart 2 units e/w @ 4/1 with Sportingbet

 

15:45 Doncaster We end the live coverage on television with an open looking six furlong handicap. Michael Appleby’s Danzeno is lightly raced and has done very well by picking up three wins from just five starts. That said however Im not so convinced the horses it’s beaten compare so favourably against today’s opposition and although it may improve enough to take this a lot is taken on trust and I’m not so convinced at a very short price. As with the first race at Doncaster today I’m going to side with a Charlie Hills runner. Shropshire is somewhat of a regular in big six furlong races and this may be seen as a bit of a step down in class. It’s true to say the horse can be very inconsistent but with the trainer in such fine form I hope today the horse will be primed and ready to take a hand in this. Another horse I’m going to opt for is trained relatively local to Doncaster by trainer David Nicholls. Poole Harbour’s last run at Chester can be forgiven and the horse should strip fitter for the run and return to firmer ground. It hasn’t won since June 2012 but has a decent handicap mark now and may sneak a place.
Shropshire 1 unit (E/W) @ 12/1 with Sportingbet Poole Harbour 1 unit (E/W) @ 25/1 with Sportingbet

Betting Agency Tip : 1 unit e/w Shropshire @ 12/1 with Sportingbet Written by Rory Paddock