The 40th Ryder Cup – Gleneagles

September 23, 2014
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ryder cup greenI wonder if old Sam Ryder had the vision when he started this bi-annual battle that this would become the most compelling team sporting event on the calendar.

It captures the imagination of every sporting fan, not just Golf fans and it seems to motivate our insanely rich professional golfers to reach for the very best of their abilities. In short it is a magical long weekend of sporting emotion.

In order to discover the winner of this event we need to look at the teams and their abilities and for the purpose of this assessment we have allocated a point score calculated as follows; a maximum of 5 points towards their current form, 5 points towards their overall matchplay game, 5 points for their previous Ryder Cup experience and another 5 points for their ability to putt consistently. By doing this we can come up with a team score and then shape our betting position accordingly.

 

Europe Ryder teamI have allocated the players points accordingly with an appropriate comment

 

Team Europe

Thomas Bjorn   – 14 – If he is hot he is very hot with the flat stick – if he cracks then it all falls apart and the results aren’t great. But he has had a renaissance year this year.

Jamie Donaldson – 14 – Has a great game this year and will be well suited by the prospect. Rookie status my only concern because he looks to have a very sound game in all departments.

Victor Dubuisson   – 16 – Ultra consistent, magician around the greens and handles matchplay and pressure very well. Rookie downgrade otherwise he would be a lot closer to 20 points. Our tip be the number 1 Rookie in points.

Sergio Garcia   -17 – Brilliant all round game and his putting is so much better than it was (It was very poor under pressure). He just needs to believe and he will win and we all know about the Spanish temperament for this event and how he is inspired by Seve for the Ryder Cup.   

Martin Kaymer  – 16 – Brilliant self belief and one heck of a game – power and precision. Can be a little streaky- my only reservation

Graeme McDowell -17 – Coming in to form at the right time and handles pressure better than most – Big Game player

Rory McIlroy – 19 – The don’t come any hotter and our talisman will be under pressure – but I think he loves it

Justin Rose – 19 – My tip to be our top point scorer. All round game makes less mistakes than anyone and that counts in this format

Henrik Stenson – 18 – Has reached last years heights yet but he is a magician. I marked him down on his current form but nothing else

Lee Westwood – 17 –  Lee is a brillaint partner to have as he is so straight but he simply cant hole big putts under pressure

Stephen Gallacher – 16 – Hot form now – can it hold up to this pressure in his Rookie year. Maybe but thats again why he is marked down

Ian Poulter – 19 – Seems to find another gear in this competition and I have marked him solely on his Ryder Cup form. 

Team Total   202

 

Team USA

tom watson

Is this as close as team captain Watson will get to the trophy?

Rickie Fowler – 18 – Is massively up for this and brings the best all round game to the table in the American team. Lacks a little experience but very capable and explosive.

Jim Furyk – 16- Lots of experience and radar straight. Perfect partner for a rookie. Problem is in the singles – simply cant putt

Zach Johnson – 17 – Just lacking the Zip in his game of old but will be hard to beat. Technically strong in all areas and handles pressure very well. Scores highly on the bottle index.

Matt Kuchar – 18 –  “Cooch” knows how to battle and has both the experience and a game coming right at the right time – will score well.

Phil Mickelson – 16 – May still be capable of fireworks but I think has too many mental scars. If he’s hot he can do anything but this is his last and he still doesnt know where its going and hits the ball too high.

Patrick Reed – 14 – Not sure if he has either the game or the ability to perform at this level but he is in form – Rookie

Jordan Spieth – 16 – Mentally tough and a star of the future. Will need to handle a lot of pressure but he is capable of doing that. My tip to be team Rookie 

Jimmy Walker – 15 – Had a great year but this is a whole new ball game, he needs to be looked after in this or he could be scarred for a long time to come.

Bubba Watson – 14 Certainly has one heck of a game but nothing about our golf suits it – the wind, the open spaces, the greens. Could be a liability.

Keegan Bradley – 16- Will have to step up to the plate if his country is to win. He is a tough performer but a lot is expected of him

Hunter Mahan – 18 – In great nick and as tough as anyone to beat. My tip to be top US points scorer. He and Cooch would be tough

Webb Simpson – 18 Game in a good place right now and quietly confident in his own abilities, technically sound.

Team Total : 196

 

So based on our figures alone, that’s a win but not by a huge margin for Europe – now lets factor in home ground advantage for the course, the conditions and the crowd and add 5% on to the European team and take 5% off the USA team. That creates a new point total of,  Europe 213 and USA 186 and this I think accurately reflects the realistic gap between the two teams. If this was reflected in a price, excluding the tie, then I think the prices should be, working on a 100% book, Europe 2-5, USA, 5-2.

Now we can back Europe at 4-6 currently and as you know our theory is that if you can keep backing outcomes at a far bigger price than you believe they should be then you will win and in this case that’s what we will be doing – for our maximum advised stake.

 

Our bet : 12 units Europe @ 4-6 with Betvictor – that’s right 12 units.

Top European Points Scorer – 2 units win @ 7/1 Justin Rose  with Sportingbet

Top American Points Scorer – 2 units win @ 12/1 Hunter Mahan with Sportingbet

Top American Rookie Points Scorer – 4 units win Jordan Speith @ 5/4 Sportingbet

Top European Rookie Points Scorer  – 4 units win Victor Dubuisson @ 7/4 Bet 365