Royal Ascot – Day 4 Preview

June 18, 2015
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Mark Johnston

The Royal Ryan Moore Show rolls on

It really has been three fabulous days of racing but so far its the Ryan Moore show, featuring Aiden O’Brien. Remember it was us who said it on Tuesday – the greatest jockey in the world – don’t believe it – go back and read it. How much more damage can he do – who knows. He could win on the stable cat at the moment, as long as that stable was Ballydoyle of course. On to day 4 and we think Mark Johnston could have a big day today

 

Wesley Ward2.30 Albany Stakes Group Fillies 6f

For 2 yo’s running 6f with a stiff finish it takes some doing and for that reason we are looking for pace and stamina. Wesley Ward knows about pace and his two are well fancied. Laxfield Road hacked up by 11 lengths on debut and has stamina a plenty on the dam side of her pedigree, her stablemate Back at the Ranch was also impressive at Belmont and may be strong enough to see out the trip. Spanish Romance for Eoghan O’Neil has produced stunning figures in her two runs in France and she looks to have a favourite’s chance if she takes to the quicker ground. Kevin Ryan has a good horse in Ashadihan but is she good enough? I like the look of Tutu Nguru who won on debut for Wiiliam Haggas but the Hannons have an angle on that form as it was one of theirs that she beat and that brings us nicely to Richard Hannon whose filly Illuminate will be very popular after winning at Salisbury and then the second from the same yard winning a listed race next time out. Most difficult race of the week in my eyes. In the last ten years we have had 3 favourites, 3 11/2 or bigger winners and one 50/1 shot. Tread warily

Our bets:

1 unit e/w Laxfield Road @ 7/1 with Skybet

1 unit e/w Spanish Romance @ 9/1 with Skybet

 

godolphin3.05 King Edward Vll Group 2  3yo 12f

Without being superstars some good horses have won this in the past, Eagle Top, Nathaniel, Campanologist, Hillstar. Good but not great and thats how this line-up looks. Balios for David Simcock won his maiden then went better finishing 2nd next time over 10f and this extra trip could be ideal, Magic Dancers second to Kiliminjaro at Lingfield in the Derby trial also looks a decent effort. Festive Fare for the boys in blue, Godolphin, got within 2.5l of Golden Hand at Newmarket over 10f and that now looks pretty good doesn’t it and I’m not sure what to make of Old Man River but he has a mile run back a bit which is better on form figures than anything this lot of done by about 8lbs. Maybe god – O’Brien can coax that figure out of him over 12f, that would be enough I think oh and of course Ryan is on board!!!

1 unit e/w Festive fare @ 9/2 with bet 365

 

tiggy wiggy anthem alexander

Tiggy Wiggy beating Anthem Alexander – this time!

3.40 Commonwealth Cup Group 1 3yo 6f

This might be the best race on the card this week. A newly created race for 3yo sprinters over 6f it brings together the best 2yo sprinters from 2014 including some Royal winners and let’s them get on with it. Limato would have been all the rage had this particular bubble not burst at Haydock recently where his trainer suggested he may not have grown enough to be the force of 2014 and of course the ground being quicker, which it will be (expect her not to run unless rain comes). Anthem Alexander was superb here last year and she resumes battle with Tiggy Wiggy after a good opening win at Naas this year. Tiggy Wiggy has been tried over 7f and 8f this year but thankfully her trainer reverts to sprinting where she had few peers and she must be feared. Hootenanny returns to these shores after success here in 2014 and a winning pipe opener at Keeneland already in 2015. He must be respected. Adaay looked the real deal when beating both Limato and Jungle Cat in his last two races and there may still be more to come. Jungle Cat is no slouch but as yet we haven’t seen the form of the aforementioned but he is close and could still come on. There are still another 10 horses who also line-up to consider in what is just a great race. We need to get involved and so we go as follows

1 unit e/w Tiggy Wiggy @ 6/1 Bet 365

1 unit e/w Anthem Alexander @ 8/1 with Sportingbet

 

lucida4.20 Coronation Stakes Group 1 Fillies 1 mile

All the best fillies have run in and won this race. This year is not long on quantity but may have quite a bit of quality amongst the runners. Ervedya from France has won a Grp 1 already in 2015 and in doing so beat Martyn Meades impressive filly Irish Rookie who looks to be improving but I cant help thinking that these two are just below top class. Found was too good for Evedrya last year by 2.5 lengths and she seems to have held her form this year and is as good as ever so she should finish in front of those two. Arabian Queen’s Group 3 win at Epsom was impressive winning by 4 lengths and she only has to improve another 4-5 lbs to be in the mix for David Elsworth but for me the one they have to catch is Lucida who was just denied by Legattisimo in the Guineas and looks to be just a bit better than the rest in this race. Found of course now looks even stronger in the betting having got so close to Pleascach but my problem is, she was beaten by a 1 mile 4f horse – that cant be right. We stay with Lucida.

Our bet: 3 units e/w Lucida @ 100/30 with Bet 365

 

5.00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Hcp Class 2 1mile 4f

Some decent horses have won this and I suppose you could argue that they were relatively unexposed when winning this race. Its perhaps the reason why we wouldn’t normally be tipping up Sennockian Star, although this time his latest performance at Chester showed he is now in top notch order and having won off 106 he now races off 97 and must be considered against the trend. The average SP of this race over 10 years has been 10/1 and only 2 favs have won in that time. There is a form line covering Arab Dawn, Watersmeet and Astronereus that will take some sorting out and my gut instinct says these are the others to concentrate on with the addition of Dashing Star and Forgotten Hero. I think I have named the winner in that lot, its just knowing which one it is. I need two and whilst Sennockian Star is going to be one of them I think the other is going to be Arab Dawn. More 4 yr olds have won this race than any other age group and only 5 year old’s have featured otherwise in the last 10 years. Arab Dawn (4) had just the one run and was kept for this race and he gets the second birth to make it an Arab uprising for two years running with Arab Spring winning last year.

1 unit e/w Sennockian Star @ 16/1 with Skybet

1 unit e/w Arab Dawn @ 6/1 with Skybet

 

5.35 Queens Vase Listed Race 2 miles

Aloft will be all the rage, with Aiden and Ryan dominating. His form figures suggest he is a cut above these but my concern is no run in 2015 and he moves from 1 mile to 2. That’s a big jump. Even for god to achieve. Bantry Bay is another from the same stable and he gets the assistance of son Joseph and is more likely for me. He only has to go 4 more furlongs on what we have seen so far and he was clearly slow as a 2yo. Fabricate for the Queen might just be her first Royal winner this year and I love Adam Kirby in the plate. Vive Ma Fille may not have the class to win on paper but she has the heart and I think she will love this extra few furlongs for Mark Johnston and against the odds, she is the selection.

Our Bet :

1 unit e/w Vive Ma Fille @ 25/1 with Bet 365